Showing posts with label Maliki. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Maliki. Show all posts

Saturday, January 27, 2007

American Democracy at War



War



Srategies





Iraq War Strategies under Hitler, Roosevelt or Truman, versus Bush


I want to compare how a dictator would wage the War in Iraq, versus how our democracy must wage it.





Furthermore, I want to compare how Roosevelt or Truman would wage the war versus how Bush is waging it. There are advantages for a dictator in waging war, but also disadvantages. The same is true for a democracy, and especially for our democracy post Vietnam and post Watergate.

Moreover, there is a difference in leadership style between our leaders in WWII and our leaders now.


Hitler


How would Hitler wage the War in Iraq? He would use his own judgment and wield absolute control to effect it. Knowing Hitler, he would use overwhelming force quickly. He would also be aware that Iran and Syria are funding, training, and even sending troops into Iraq, so he would open up fronts against both these countries simultaneously, aiming to crush them and perhaps even take them over. In Iraq, he would confiscate the oil fields and use the revenue to pay for the war effort. He would annihilate neighborhoods that harbored terrorists or insurgents. He would not hesitate to ethnically cleanse either Sunnis or Shias if they continued to be troublemakers.

Results

What would the results be? Hitler sults be? Hitler would probably win the War in Iraq. He would have conquered Iraq by now, and maybe Syria too, and at least reduced Iran's influence in the region, including stopping them from developing nuclear weapons and decimating their army and warlike capabilities.


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The disadvantages?

The rest of the world would be building armies and weaponry to oppose him and defeat him eventually. A quiet insurgency would begin building within Iraq, Syria and Iran to one day take their lands back. Knowing Hitler, he would eventually open up too many fronts, and eventually be defeated.

Roosevelt or Truman


How would Roosevelt or Truman wage the War in Iraq? Actually, they would fight much the same way as Hitler, except without the ethnic cleansing, and without the permanent takeover of Iraq, Iran and Syria. Plus, after the war, they would return the oil fields to the Iraqis, and develop a Marshall Plan for that country.

Results

The results? There would be peace in Iraq, and Roosevelt or Truman would then use this as a springboard to forge a peace between Palestine and Israel.


The disadvantages?

You need strong leaders like Roosevelt or Truman to sustain a war effort that could effect such results. Such leaders are rare.

George Bush


How is our democracy waging the War in Iraq under George Bush?

America's Perpetual War Against the Peace Advocates

America always seems to have a large peace contingent. We had anti-war folks before all of our wars. So to enter any war, millions of peaceniks or neutral folks must convert to favoring war. Franklin Delano Roosevelt wanted to go to war against Hitler's Germany long before Pearl Harbor, but it took that disaster to mobilize enough Americans to favor the war. Roosevelt used Pearl Harbor to get us into the war, and then used Allied victories, carefully orchestrated propaganda, and the power of the bully pulpit to sustain American fervor for the war, all the way to victory.

Bush Handicaps

George Bush is operating under a number of handicaps compared with Roosevelt and Truman:

First, we are post Vietnam and post Watergate. Many Americans are instinctually anti-war because of the mess of Vietnam. Those same Americans, plus others, are distrustful of their government and leaders because of Watergate.

Second, the perpetual war between congress and the president over who has more power is in a stage where congress is emboldened to tip the scale in their favor. Democrats sense a weakened president, and so are pressing their case for more congressional power and less presidential power.

Third, George Bush has been less than effective in explaining the war to the people. He has not been able, as of late, to overcome the Democratic and some Republican opposition to the war by virtue of the bully pulpit. Part of the reason is that he has had a slow learning curve in giving effective speeches and communications; and part of it is that, until recently, he has not leveled with the American people about the truths of the war.

Fourth, Bush and Cheney et al made crucial strategic and tactical mistakes in Iraq, such as too few troops, not guarding weapons caches, and leaving the Iraqi army unemployed, which set up the inevitability of the insurgency and the failures in the Iraq War.

Fifth, Bush has chosen to fight a politically correct war. For example, he let Muqtada al-Sadr go when he had him cornered, so as not to anger the Shias; he would not attack the enemy in mosques; he was "careful" when going into insurgent strongholds not to harm the neighborhoods nor the "innocent" people harboring the terrorists; and he allowed Maliki to prevent the U.S. from going after Shia insurgents. Literally, George Bush has had the United States walking on eggshells, fighting a "careful," politically correct war.

Sixth, as a result, the War in Iraq has not gone well. Though the U.S. wins every outright battle decisively, we get slaughtered in the covert war, and public opinion continues to increase against the war.

Seventh, the U.S., along with Bush's ineffective championing of the war, is not engaging in any active propaganda war. Admittedly, in the age of the Internet, YouTube, and MySpace, this would be hard to do anyway, but there seems to be no massive educational campaign about why we are fighting and how high the stakes are. We just have one, lone Texas Ranger, who can't communicate well, telling us to trust him on this one.


Results?

We are winning the War in Iraq, in reality. There is no way the insurgents can defeat us. We win every battle, inflict more casualties than they do, and control the territory and the financial assets. We do suffer causalities, unfortunately. 3,000 dead is significant. Yet, compared to all our other wars, this casualty rate is low. What we are losing, as happened in Vietnam, is the PR war. The propaganda war. The war for hearts and minds.

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Conclusions


Hitler

Hitler would have won the War in Iraq by now, hands down. On the other hand, he would have continued his expansionism until he angered so much of the world that they would eventually mass and defeat him, as happened in WWII.

Roosevelt and Truman

Roosevelt and Truman would have won the War in Iraq by now, but they didn't have the handicaps that Bush has. We'd be well on our way to world peace, including in Palestine and Israel, under Roosevelt or Truman.

Bush

In my opinion, Bush was wise to invade Iraq and depose Saddam Hussein. This was a good thing for world peace and the War on Terror. It's too bad the American people don't see this and aren't patient enough to witness the resulting good things that will come from its successful conclusion.

Bush is winning the actual war in Iraq, undoubtedly, but has not won the PR nor the propaganda war, and so has lost the hearts and minds of Americans, Iraqis, and the world. Though Bush is winning the battlefield war for control of the territory and assets of Iraq, he is not winning the peace, the battle for law and order in Iraq. Due to military blunders, strategic and tactical, and through fighting a politically correct war, Bush has not been able to quash the nascent civil war and bring peace and security to Iraq. So, as in Vietnam, America is in danger of being driven from Iraq, not by the force of a standing enemy army, but by a deadly insurgency that instills fear, and by the force of public opinion.


The Solution


Bush has one more chance, the troop surge.

He needs to take the gloves off and stop fighting a politically correct war. He must fight to win, now. Plus, he must develop immediately into an effective communicator on the war, and authorize some kind of massive education campaign to teach the American people what the stakes are in this war.


Rock

(*Wikipedia is always my source unless indicated.)


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Sunday, January 14, 2007

The Iraq Conundrum



Fight or
light



Showdown


US military may join Iraq against militia leaders: The Boston Globe. Bush authorization could spark deadly confrontations, By Farah Stockman and Bryan Bender, Globe Staff, January 14, 2007.
WASHINGTON -- US military officials say the Bush administration has given them new authority to target leaders of political and religious militias in Iraq who are implicated in sectarian violence,





including the powerful Shi'ite Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

Such a showdown, key to Bush's plan to increase the number of US troops in Baghdad, could spark a deadly confrontation with Shi'ite militias, which enjoy widespread popularity in Shi'ite neighborhoods. It could also erode support for the fragile government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who has agreed to the plan.

Senior US and Iraqi officials said last week that Maliki has pledged to confront the militias with the help of additional US troops. But many analysts doubt that Maliki has the will or the firepower to take on Sadr, whose Mahdi Army militia is blamed for much of the tit-for-tat violence in the capital.

In recent months, Maliki and other top Iraqi officials routinely vetoed US raids on Sadr's operations, fearing the reaction of his legion of followers. Maliki's government kept a list of militia leaders who were off-limits to US troops, a senior Pentagon official told reporters in a background briefing in Washington, but now Maliki has agreed that the list would no longer be used.

Bush said on his recent 60 Minutes interview:

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"I think history is going to look back and see a lot of ways we could have done things better."

Questioned about the instability in Iraq, Bush said: "Well, no question decisions have made things unstable."

And in his most recent radio address:

Bush said choices made after invasion eroded Iraq's security:

Bush also said his new plan could succeed, because, "American forces will have a green light to enter neighborhoods that are home to those fueling sectarian violence." Until now, US forces have been restricted by the Iraqi prime minister from operating freely in the Sadr City area that is home to a powerful Shi'ite militia. But Bush said those restrictions had been lifted and that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has promised that he would not tolerate interference with security operations."

Does This Mean We are Finally Going to Start Fighting in Iraq?


This whole development is astonishing to me. It illustrates that my charge that we have been fighting a politically correct war has been correct. This is shameful. This is only one part of the war, and in it, we have been prohibited from going after the real troublemakers in Iraq by the Maliki government.

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What Bush Should Have Done


Bush should have said, "Look Mr. Maliki, do you want us to stay here in Iraq? If you do, then this is what we must do to win this war. If you don't want to let us do these things, then we have no choice but to leave."

Instead, Bush allowed our troops to stay in the danger zone with their hands tied behind their backs. Another example of Bush trying to be a diplomat, a good guy.

Yes, I know that I am not privy to details on the ground, and that things are not as simple as I am making them. I also realize that going after renegade Shias might ultimately topple Maliki. My answer is that Maliki will fall anyway if things continue as they are.

Also, things are not as complicated as they are making them either. The proof of this is that Maliki, out of desperation, has finally agreed to let the U.S. troops fight like they need to. This could have happened years ago, if Bush had been demanding and tough as nails, which is what we need there.

We ought to be fighting to win, without regard to politics. Until and when we do this, we cannot progress in such a morass of a war. Can you believe that Bush and the military leaders cannot see this?

Remember MacArthur? The guy went too far, but he knew how to win wars. Patton? Eishenhower?

Now, instead, we have Bush, ordering our troops not to make anyone unhappy, while they are sitting ducks for I.E.D.'s and snipers.

Give me our unleashed WWII commanders, or our unfettered Sherman or Grant.

If not, then let's get out.


Rock

(*Wikipedia is always my source unless indicated.)


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Thursday, January 11, 2007

Con and Pro on the New Bush Plan for Iraq


Bush plan for Iraq: 20,000 new troops; Iraqi control by November.


Considering the New Plan


I believe that paz y amour's response to yesterday's post Scoundrel-osity, about the Democratic demogoging of the issue of the new Bush plan for Iraq, is a good explanation of one way of thinking about Bush's idea to inject 20,000 new troops into the Iraq situation. I'll use paz' response as the first part of this post, and then I'll add my take on Bush's plan. Don't forget to check out paz' blog, the path.

One Argument Against the Plan: paz y amour


Forgive me for saying that I saw this post coming a mile away once I saw Eddie Kennedy spouting off about hijacking funding. I have to agree that he's being despicable with this latest antic. At the same time though, I feel another "Why Bush is an Idiot" post coming on. Here's my take on the whole "surge" idea:

Military Advice

A) Apparently, there is a large contingency of GENERALS and MILITARY leaders at the Pentagon saying that an increase of troops of only 20 thousand is a bad idea.




These are the people who have been shot/shot at in combat, know military strategy better than any of us and are the ones that should be trusted, right?


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The Baker Commission

B) A bipartisan committee of past presidential cabinet members came up with a series of suggestions to help the current president through this mess. These are people who have successfully worked through international crises in the past and are people who's opinions SHOULD be trusted, right?

and


Iraqi Cooperation

C) Military leaders are going along with this plan contingent on (yet another) promise from the Iraqi government to give full cooperation and support politically and militarily. This "promise" should be trusted, right? Uhh, right....

Troop Morale

Despite the reservations and recommendations of the military and Iraq committee, the president wants to INSTEAD slowly put more troops into Iraq- meaning the SAME soldiers are RETURNING to Iraq before they planned/intended to. That's a surefire way to boost morale!

A Bad Plan and a Lack of Leadership

Obviously we don't have the numbers on the ground to overrun an insurgency and another 20 thousand isn't significant enough. We'd probably need 200 thousand to make a difference (in Gulf War 1, we had 600 thousand troops!). The problem isn't in a lack of political support, lack of funding or a lack of materials, it's a lack of LEADERSHIP. The president has shown his ineptitude in this conflict (as you will agree) and obviously STILL has no viable plan to make it as successful as possible. I just wish those "demagogues" (Eddie et al.) would say that the "plan" to put a few more troops on the ground sucks and a much better one needs to be put into place rather than trying to use political muscle to get Bush to capitulate.

paz y amour

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One Argument For the Plan: Rock


I'm not going to go into great detail in defending the plan, as I really am ignorant of many inside details that would be necessary for me to say with confidence that it would or wouldn't work.

Valid Arguments Against the Deployment

Paz' major points that 20,000 troops will not be enough and that our troops are already deployed to the breaking point are valid. I've heard one estimation that we would need about 100,000 additional troops just in Baghdad alone to secure that city.

The Iraqi Variable

The one variable, though, that could save the day is Iraqi cooperation with the plan.



The Iraqis are not dumb. They see the writing on the wall. They follow American politics closely, and know that the American people have had it with the war and will not tolerate much more of it.

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Part of the plan is to transfer complete control over Iraqi security to Iraqi forces by November. This is the great unknown. Can the Iraqi's do it? Are they willing to do it? Their military and police are riddled with traitors to the cause, insurgents in hiding who "protect" the Iraqi people during the day, and kill them at night. Is Malaki willing to go after these folks and rid the military and police of them? Is he willing to take on Moqtada al-Sadr, the enemy of peace?

This is the major test for Iraq. American impatience with the war might be a good thing, in that it kicks Maliki in the butt and lets him know it's now or never for him. It's do or die for Iraqi democracy under a unified government. Time has run out.

Safety for Our Troops

I think giving Maliki until November is a reasonable time period. In the meantime, while 20,000 more troops is not enough, it will make our soldiers safer. Despite this, this year will be the bloodiest of all in Iraq, as the insurgents smell victory, and will step up their attacks. Adding 20,000 troops will not tamp down the violence so much as prevent the violence from killing even more Americans than would occur without the troops.

Those opposed to the deployment want our "footprint" in the area to decrease, so that we are perceived less as the occupiers. This makes sense. However, the insurgents are not dumb either. They know our footprint is decreasing anyway, despite the extra 20,000 troops. They know their main enemy now are Iraqis, not Americans. That's why I don't think the extra 20,000 troops will anger anyone more than they are angry now. The effect will mainly be to help keep some semblance of order, to allow the Iraqi government to gear up, and to protect American soldiers from suffering any more casualties than is necessary.


Troop Morale

Whose morale are we talking about? If you are a National Guard and your length of service in Iraq is extended, or if you are activated to go there, your morale might not be high, this I grant. However, do ask the troops on the ground what they think too. I believe that if you query American soldiers on the ground whether a troop increase is a good thing or not, more than 90% of them will say it is a good thing. If I were there, I'd want more buddies around me, wouldn't you?

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Rock

(*Wikipedia is always my source unless indicated.)


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