Bush plan for Iraq: 20,000 new troops; Iraqi control by November.
Considering the New Plan
I believe that paz y amour's response to yesterday's post Scoundrel-osity, about the Democratic demogoging of the issue of the new Bush plan for Iraq, is a good explanation of one way of thinking about Bush's idea to inject 20,000 new troops into the Iraq situation. I'll use paz' response as the first part of this post, and then I'll add my take on Bush's plan. Don't forget to check out paz' blog, the path.
One Argument Against the Plan: paz y amour
Forgive me for saying that I saw this post coming a mile away once I saw Eddie Kennedy spouting off about hijacking funding. I have to agree that he's being despicable with this latest antic. At the same time though, I feel another "Why Bush is an Idiot" post coming on. Here's my take on the whole "surge" idea:
Military Advice
A) Apparently, there is a large contingency of GENERALS and MILITARY leaders at the Pentagon saying that an increase of troops of only 20 thousand is a bad idea.These are the people who have been shot/shot at in combat, know military strategy better than any of us and are the ones that should be trusted, right?
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One Argument For the Plan: Rock
I'm not going to go into great detail in defending the plan, as I really am ignorant of many inside details that would be necessary for me to say with confidence that it would or wouldn't work.
Valid Arguments Against the Deployment
Paz' major points that 20,000 troops will not be enough and that our troops are already deployed to the breaking point are valid. I've heard one estimation that we would need about 100,000 additional troops just in Baghdad alone to secure that city.The Iraqi Variable
The one variable, though, that could save the day is Iraqi cooperation with the plan.The Iraqis are not dumb. They see the writing on the wall. They follow American politics closely, and know that the American people have had it with the war and will not tolerate much more of it.
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Part of the plan is to transfer complete control over Iraqi security to Iraqi forces by November. This is the great unknown. Can the Iraqi's do it? Are they willing to do it? Their military and police are riddled with traitors to the cause, insurgents in hiding who "protect" the Iraqi people during the day, and kill them at night. Is Malaki willing to go after these folks and rid the military and police of them? Is he willing to take on Moqtada al-Sadr, the enemy of peace?
This is the major test for Iraq. American impatience with the war might be a good thing, in that it kicks Maliki in the butt and lets him know it's now or never for him. It's do or die for Iraqi democracy under a unified government. Time has run out.
Safety for Our Troops
I think giving Maliki until November is a reasonable time period. In the meantime, while 20,000 more troops is not enough, it will make our soldiers safer. Despite this, this year will be the bloodiest of all in Iraq, as the insurgents smell victory, and will step up their attacks. Adding 20,000 troops will not tamp down the violence so much as prevent the violence from killing even more Americans than would occur without the troops.Those opposed to the deployment want our "footprint" in the area to decrease, so that we are perceived less as the occupiers. This makes sense. However, the insurgents are not dumb either. They know our footprint is decreasing anyway, despite the extra 20,000 troops. They know their main enemy now are Iraqis, not Americans. That's why I don't think the extra 20,000 troops will anger anyone more than they are angry now. The effect will mainly be to help keep some semblance of order, to allow the Iraqi government to gear up, and to protect American soldiers from suffering any more casualties than is necessary.
Troop Morale
Whose morale are we talking about? If you are a National Guard and your length of service in Iraq is extended, or if you are activated to go there, your morale might not be high, this I grant. However, do ask the troops on the ground what they think too. I believe that if you query American soldiers on the ground whether a troop increase is a good thing or not, more than 90% of them will say it is a good thing. If I were there, I'd want more buddies around me, wouldn't you?click to hide most of this section
Rock
(*Wikipedia is always my source unless indicated.)
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The Baker Commission
B) A bipartisan committee of past presidential cabinet members came up with a series of suggestions to help the current president through this mess. These are people who have successfully worked through international crises in the past and are people who's opinions SHOULD be trusted, right?and
Iraqi Cooperation
C) Military leaders are going along with this plan contingent on (yet another) promise from the Iraqi government to give full cooperation and support politically and militarily. This "promise" should be trusted, right? Uhh, right....Troop Morale
Despite the reservations and recommendations of the military and Iraq committee, the president wants to INSTEAD slowly put more troops into Iraq- meaning the SAME soldiers are RETURNING to Iraq before they planned/intended to. That's a surefire way to boost morale!A Bad Plan and a Lack of Leadership
Obviously we don't have the numbers on the ground to overrun an insurgency and another 20 thousand isn't significant enough. We'd probably need 200 thousand to make a difference (in Gulf War 1, we had 600 thousand troops!). The problem isn't in a lack of political support, lack of funding or a lack of materials, it's a lack of LEADERSHIP. The president has shown his ineptitude in this conflict (as you will agree) and obviously STILL has no viable plan to make it as successful as possible. I just wish those "demagogues" (Eddie et al.) would say that the "plan" to put a few more troops on the ground sucks and a much better one needs to be put into place rather than trying to use political muscle to get Bush to capitulate.paz y amour