The Recent Polls and What They Suggest
P
olls and
erceptions
The '08 Presidential Election
In the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll,54% of Americans are inclined to vote for a Democrat for president in the next election; while 31% say they favor a Republican.
Still, in the most recent Quinnipiac University Poll, when the specific candidates are pitted against each other, the story changes.
Rudy Giuliani 44%, Hillary Clinton 45%
John McCain 42%, Hillary Clinton 44%
Fred Thompson 39%, Hillary Clinton 46%
A similar picture manifests with Barack Obama.
Rudy Giuliani 42%, Barack Obama 42%
John McCain 41%, Barack Obama 43%
Fred Thompson 34%, Barack Obama 46%
Presidential Approval Rating
In the most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 29% of the American people approve of the overall job President Bush is doing in office, while 66% disapprove. This is a drop of six points since April, and it represents his lowest mark ever on this question in the NBC/Journal poll.
Democratic pollster Jay Campbell, attributes this decline to Republicans. Back in April, 75 percent of Republicans approved of Bush’s job performance, compared with 21 percent who disapproved. Now, only 62 percent of Republicans approve, versus 32 percent who disapprove.
Congress
In the most recent AP-Ipsos poll,
WASHINGTON - People think the Democratic-led Congress is doing just as dreary a job as President Bush, following four months of bitter political standoffs that have seen little progress on Iraq and a host of domestic issues.
The survey found only 35 percent approve of how Congress is handling its job, down 5 percentage points in a month. That gives lawmakers the same bleak approval rating as Bush, who has been mired at about that level since last fall, including his dip to a record low for the AP-Ipsos poll of 32 percent last January.
In another measure of popular discontent, the survey found that 71 percent say the country is on the wrong track - about even with the 73 percent who said so last May, the worst level since the AP-Ipsos poll began in December 2003.
What about Nancy Pelosi? The same AP-Ispsos poll found that:
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is a more popular figure than the president and her colleagues on Capitol Hill, though she faces a gender gap in which significantly more women than men support her.
Pelosi's overall approval of 45 percent stood 10 points higher than Bush's and Congress'.
She was seen favorably by 52 percent of women, but only 39 percent of men. While whites are closely split about her, minorities approve of her job by a 15-point margin.
The War in Iraq
In the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, 28 % of the American people approve of the way Bush is handling the war in Iraq, while 68% disapprove.
Illegal Immigration
A new Washington Post-ABC poll and follow-up interviews found that:
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What Lies Ahead?
If things continue as they are now, Republicans will lose some of their base. They can't afford this. It is still possible for one of the attractive Republican candidates to defeat Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, but even if this happens, Congress will slide even more left than it is now, barring a major shift.
What this means is, look out for your pocketbooks; short the stock market; be ready to join the religion of environmental extremism; expect to lose the War on Terror, for now; and forget about a peaceful Middle East.
Ideally, we'd have some candidate with a world vision that can help shape a more peaceful world. I don't see that candidate yet. Hopefully, someone will be imbued with wisdom and start thinking about the future of the world rather than the next election. I will vote for that person. My suggestion for him or her is, fine—win your primary. Then, however, get serious and start acting presidential. If you can get away with acting presidential even now, do it. Should you still win your primary, you'll have an edge on gravitas over the rest of the candidates in the final election.
Who Has the Potential to be a Great Leader?
Which candidates do have it in them to grow into this presidential persona? I believe they are Clinton, Obama, McCain, Giuliani, and Thompson. Clinton and Obama, of course, have the biggest challenge with this—as they are true liberals, and the world does not need liberal solutions at this time. Yet, Clinton could do it, if she allows herself to grow. Obama could do it if he listens to his innate intelligence, ignoring his poll numbers to an extent.
What about Romney? I doubt he'd have the flexibility to see the world as it really is, but I may be wrong. We'll see. He is, after all, a presidential candidate who would present a pretty face to the world, backed by a high level of intelligence and communication skills.
There, the gauntlet is laid. Who will pick it up?
Rock
(*Wikipedia is always my source unless indicated.)
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State of the Republican Party
Since I favor Republicans at this time in history, this all represents a big mess for me. Everything seems to be going wrong for conservatives at the same time, and at warp speed and with irreversible momentum.
I know some of my readers think highly of Bush, and that 62% of Republicans still approve of the job he is doing. I am not one of these. I continue to admire his doggedness in the War in Iraq, and for the highly effective War on Terror he has waged. For these, I believe President Bush deserves our everlasting thanks.
I am also happy with him over the economy. He has kept our taxes low, and enabled an expansion to continue in the middle of a major war.
On the other hand, I continue to fault him for the politically correct way he is waging the War in Iraq, with his restrictive rules of engagement. I also don't think he has been expert in his handling of other cultures in the Middle East. Mostly, I believe, he continues to try to be a "nice guy," not realizing that what is needed is firmness and ruthlessness, much as we mustered in World War II. I am also unhappy with his amnesty plan for illegals.
Most of all, I am dissatisfied with him over his inability to lead our country to see what he sees concerning the necessity for the Iraq War, and for his vision for the Middle East. He is content to continue to "do the right things" as he perceives them, without understanding that he must also become a great communicator and salesman, despite his shortcomings in this area.