The
Hostages are
Pawns in a global game.
No Spin
The world is so complicated now (perhaps it always is) that it makes my head spin. Since this is a bigger no-spin zone than
O'Reilly, I've got to get a hold of myself and stand my ground. If the world situation affects me this way, I suppose it affects a few others similarly. I don't envy George W. Bush, nor members of Congress, nor, for that fact, the American voter.
Nukes and Hostages
Iran, feeling that it has not gotten the respect it deserves, and feeling threatened by sanctions, reached out and grabbed someone—a number of British hostages who we're not supposed to call hostages.
Iran's move, after the kidnapping, was to parade the hostages with their "confessions."Iran Monday showed no sign of bowing to diplomatic pressure to release 15 British sailors and Marines detained for over a week, saying all the captives have confessed to illegally entering Iranian waters.
Iran's state-run IRIB network reported Monday that all 15 confessed on video, but "due to certain changes in the last two days in the sensational British policies, the detailed interviews will not be aired."
Blair's move was to half-apologize and use quiet diplomacy.
"We are anxious that this matter be resolved as quickly as possible, and that it be resolved by diplomatic means, and we are bending every single effort to that. . . . We are in direct bilateral communication with the Iranians," British Defence Minister Des Browne told reporters yesterday.
Bush's move was to call the kidnapees hostages, and move in the aircraft carriers.
"The British hostages issue is a serious issue because the Iranians took these people out of Iraqi waters, and it's inexcusable behaviour," Mr. Bush said in response to a reporter's question during a press conference at the Camp David retreat.
Who is Winning?
Iran gets to have higher oil prices, which will help their economy. Britain and the United States, so far, though, get a boost in public opinion worldwide, as compared with Iran.
Several commentators are saying, though, that Bush went too far in calling the prisoners hostages. They fear that this will provoke Iran into keeping the prisoners longer.
The bedrock truth is that this whole incident will not delay sanctions against Iran, and the world seems even more united in seeing that Iran not obtain nuclear weapons.
Another 444-day Hostage Crisis?
Can the situation escalate into a repeat of the 1979 Iran hostage crisis, which lasted from November 4, 1979, through January 20, 1981?
I don't think so. Though Bush is a weakened president, a lame duck with low approval ratings, he has no shortage of backbone, as was the case with Jimmy Carter.
Iran took the hostages in the Carter era because they thought they could get away with it. They took the hostages this time as a daring act of pique. They are hoping to change the status quo.
There is not a chance in a million, though, that they can keep these hostages for 444 days. As long as Bush and Blair are in charge, this won't happen.
Iran's Boldness
Why did Iran think they could get away with even this stunt, as it is? Well here, I have to concede that they know Bush and Blair can't do anything in the short run—yes, due to their lack of approval, and the public's war fatigue, but also due to the takeover of the United States Congress by leftist pacifists, who always bring more violence to the world than they prevent.
Still, neither Bush nor Blair will let this situation stand for long.
Check and Mate
Is it a chess game? Yes, but eventually, sooner rather than later, the West will checkmate Iran on this one. Ahmadinejad will have made his point, though, that he can stir up trouble and roil our markets anytime he chooses.
Rock
(*Wikipedia is always my source unless indicated.)
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I am reminded that this is exactly how Osama bin Laden, with American help and shoulder fired missiles, drove the Soviets from Afghanistan several years ago. The military, with Bush's blessing, is going to adjust to this new threat, however, unlike the Russians.
Democrats are the ones, I believe, in the untenable position on Iraq. Though the American people are disillusioned with Iraq and want the U.S. to get out, they are becoming aware of the bloody aftermath that will follow if the U.S. leaves. Moderate Democrats have gone on record with their votes and statements that they think the surge will fail. This puts them in the position of having to cheer for American failure in Iraq. They have always cheered for American failure in Iraq, in my opinion; but with these votes, this anti-American sentiment is exposed. Will Ted Kennedy, for example, ever say "Good job!" to Bush if the troop surge works? Never. Kennedy has committed to the failure of the surge, and will be looking for any signs that he has been right.
The Democrats have made the mistake of playing to the polls, instead of doing what is right. The American people will see through this.
If the surge doesn't work, then at least Bush will have tried. If it does work, then the world will be a better place; Democrats will be exposed as the demagogues they are; and Bush's stature will soar.
Nuclear Issues with Korea and Iran
Bush just had a major success with his "stubborn" policy with Korea. Thanks to the arm-twisting of the Chinese, Korea has agreed to stop developing nuclear weapons. This is a major diplomatic success for Bush. Former U.N. ambassador John Bolton, independent as ever, thinks the United States is being bamboozled, much like happened to Clinton, where the North Koreans sign an agreement and then ignore it. In my opinion, though, this time is different, since, thanks to Bush's wisdom, China is included in the enforcement of the agreement; and North Korea does not want to cross China. Here again, the Democrats will not give Bush credit for this historic achievement, but the American people will.
If Bush is lucky, he can turn around now and use much the same tactic with Iran. In this case, with Korea as the model, he can urge the European powers, and Russia, to do the arm-twisting with Iran. This is not so far-fetched as it once seemed now that the Korean situation seems to have been solved.
Putin has been sounding hysterically critical of the U.S. lately, but Bush is not taking the bait. He is not responding in kind to Russia. This is just more evidence that Bush has matured into quite a diplomat as of late. He is acting and sounding presidential on the world stage, and his steadfastness is bearing fruit.
Global Warming
Every day now there is another scientist speaking up that the world is in hysteria about global warming, and that there is no evidence that the warming is caused by mankind's behavior. Yet, the consensus is there that Al Gore is right about the issue. To me, we are in the middle of another Copernicus syndrome. It is as if 75% of the scientists and an even higher percentage of the people were saying the sun revolves around the earth and not vice versa.
All I can do is keep expressing the truth, along with the 25% of the scientists who know what they are talking about.
This is the truth:
The earth may be getting warmer, but not as dramatically as feared. Some ice is melting on the globe, but other ice is thickening. Sea levels may rise, but only inches, and not the twenty feet that Al Gore preaches. Climate change may occur, but this is largely unpredictable. Computer models are highly complex, and bear little resemblance to reality. Plus, the effect of CO2 levels on global warming is not proven. There have been times in earth's history when CO2 levels were higher than now, and the earth was colder at those times than it is now. According to the same scientists who believe in the global warming hysteria, following Kyoto and decreasing CO2 levels will have a negligible effect on global warming anyway.
Unfortunately, Bush is buying in to the hysteria, as most world leaders have. So, we are on the verge of spending billions of dollars on corrective measures that have no guarantee of success. As I've said before, I think we ought to go green, and develop alternative forms of renewable energy, but we ought not to get hysterical about it. The sky is not falling.
Bush is wrong on this one. Let's hope he doesn't become a lemming.
Social Security
The Democrats have successfully demagogued this issue, and it is dead. The left have frightened Americans and especially seniors that privatizing Social Security would mean fewer or less secure benefits, while the opposite is true. Bush never did a good job of explaining this issue to the American people, and it appears as if his time is running out on it.
Capitalism
The Social Security issue is emblematic of Bush's inability to preach capitalism to the people. This is why the socialist left is rising, with people like Nancy Pelosi and Ted Kennedy taking center stage. It would be very easy to use socialist countries as illustrations, for example, of the kind of bureaucratic nightmares that occur with socialized medicine. Bush, the first president in history with an M.B.A., is just not teaching capitalism effectively.