The
Hostages are
Pawns in a global game.
No Spin
The world is so complicated now (perhaps it always is) that it makes my head spin. Since this is a bigger no-spin zone than
O'Reilly, I've got to get a hold of myself and stand my ground. If the world situation affects me this way, I suppose it affects a few others similarly. I don't envy George W. Bush, nor members of Congress, nor, for that fact, the American voter.
Nukes and Hostages
Iran, feeling that it has not gotten the respect it deserves, and feeling threatened by sanctions, reached out and grabbed someone—a number of British hostages who we're not supposed to call hostages.
Iran's move, after the kidnapping, was to parade the hostages with their "confessions."Iran Monday showed no sign of bowing to diplomatic pressure to release 15 British sailors and Marines detained for over a week, saying all the captives have confessed to illegally entering Iranian waters.
Iran's state-run IRIB network reported Monday that all 15 confessed on video, but "due to certain changes in the last two days in the sensational British policies, the detailed interviews will not be aired."
Blair's move was to half-apologize and use quiet diplomacy.
"We are anxious that this matter be resolved as quickly as possible, and that it be resolved by diplomatic means, and we are bending every single effort to that. . . . We are in direct bilateral communication with the Iranians," British Defence Minister Des Browne told reporters yesterday.
Bush's move was to call the kidnapees hostages, and move in the aircraft carriers.
"The British hostages issue is a serious issue because the Iranians took these people out of Iraqi waters, and it's inexcusable behaviour," Mr. Bush said in response to a reporter's question during a press conference at the Camp David retreat.
Who is Winning?
Iran gets to have higher oil prices, which will help their economy. Britain and the United States, so far, though, get a boost in public opinion worldwide, as compared with Iran.
Several commentators are saying, though, that Bush went too far in calling the prisoners hostages. They fear that this will provoke Iran into keeping the prisoners longer.
The bedrock truth is that this whole incident will not delay sanctions against Iran, and the world seems even more united in seeing that Iran not obtain nuclear weapons.
Another 444-day Hostage Crisis?
Can the situation escalate into a repeat of the 1979 Iran hostage crisis, which lasted from November 4, 1979, through January 20, 1981?
I don't think so. Though Bush is a weakened president, a lame duck with low approval ratings, he has no shortage of backbone, as was the case with Jimmy Carter.
Iran took the hostages in the Carter era because they thought they could get away with it. They took the hostages this time as a daring act of pique. They are hoping to change the status quo.
There is not a chance in a million, though, that they can keep these hostages for 444 days. As long as Bush and Blair are in charge, this won't happen.
Iran's Boldness
Why did Iran think they could get away with even this stunt, as it is? Well here, I have to concede that they know Bush and Blair can't do anything in the short run—yes, due to their lack of approval, and the public's war fatigue, but also due to the takeover of the United States Congress by leftist pacifists, who always bring more violence to the world than they prevent.
Still, neither Bush nor Blair will let this situation stand for long.
Check and Mate
Is it a chess game? Yes, but eventually, sooner rather than later, the West will checkmate Iran on this one. Ahmadinejad will have made his point, though, that he can stir up trouble and roil our markets anytime he chooses.
Rock
(*Wikipedia is always my source unless indicated.)
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This is my first visit here, but I will definitely be back. Very nice blog.
ReplyDelete~Sandy G.
Thank you so much Sandy G. As we know, my prediction came true, and this is a good thing. But, the apologetic Brits did not behave like heroes. Oh well.
ReplyDeleteHave a great Easter.
Rock
I'm sending you a link to a video that might interest you, given your politically-themed weblog.
ReplyDeleteHave you ever heard of the video called The Challenge Of The Super-Duper Friends? It's a parody of the old 1970's SuperFriends cartoon, this time with a political twist, using the Democrats as the Super-Duper Friends and the Administration as the Legion Of Doom.
Karl Rove as the Joker deserves a lot of accolades. :P