The
D
ropping
ow
Riding the Tube
As I watched the Democrats battle it out in their YouTube debate last night,
Look to your left and say one good thing and one criticism about your fellow running mate.
"The good thing is, he is running so hard to the left that he is jeopardizing his chance in the election.The bad thing is, she will probably try to learn to play the saxophone next."
I estimate that if anyone of them wins the presidency, the loser will be the American economy.
For example, John Edwards, continuing the Democratic populist demagoguery, signaled that they are coming after "big oil, big insurance, and big drug companies." He forgot trial lawyers, I wonder why?
The February "Crash"
Anyway, the last time I spoke to you about the stock market was in February, right after the scare caused by the Chinese bubble. Well, our market, and the Chinese market, continued onward and upward from then.
So, with China again being talked about as a bubble, and the U.S. stock market too, and after today's dramatic drop, I think it's appropriate once again to address the market.
Disclaimer
I inform you that I am a former stockbroker with Merrill Lynch, Dean Witter and Charles Schwab. I also tell you, though, that I am presently not a professional in the financial field, and that nothing I say here shall be construed as investment advice. You must do your own homework, and make up your own minds. I am not liable for your decisions. In fact, I'll add, do not follow any advice I give. Need that be any clearer?Bragging Rights
Still, I want to gloat. In February, after that dramatic fall, I said the market would rise again, and it did.Tomorrow's Stock Market Today
What do I say this time, after a 226-point drop in the DJIA today?
First. Tomorrow, Wednesday, July 25, 2007, the market will be up. Some segments may still be hurting, like the financials and the homebuilders, but other stock sectors will rise. Techs will climb tomorrow for sure.
Predicting tomorrow is the easy part. What about the next three months, and the rest of the year?
Subprime and Mortgage Woes
The subprime fiasco and mortgage problems will weigh down some banks and much housing. This will hurt consumers, who will have to pay rising interest rates, and who will lose the cash benefit of refinancing their homes. People selling their homes will find the market soft. On the other side, buyers of homes will find bargains.Globalization
Contrary to this, though, is our favorite bugaboo, globalization, which will turn out to be the world's savior this time. For you see, the economy is no longer national; it is global. This is why Amazon (a bellwether tech stock) can be up 14% at this very moment in after-hours trading, even on a day when the rest of the market was down, down, down. The reason? Tech will not be hurt by subprime or mortgage woes, and tech is a global enterprise. Everyone buys from Amazon, even the "communist capitalists" in China. So? Tech will survive.Most sectors that are global in nature, such as energy, tech, infrastructure, and others like those restaurant chains that reach overseas, as McDonald's does, will be fine. The sectors, though, that depend on localized, American-only profits, especially those related to mortgages and homebuilding here, might face a headwind.
Overall? Global liquidity (& see liquidity info) might just be enough to overcome any and all American subprime and mortgage woes, even within continental America. There's a lot of money out there looking for bargains, and the American stock market is still undervalued in several areas.
I'd bet on a continued rise, but with some sectors hurting. Don't quote me on it. I'm just not as panicked as some.
A Bush in Hand is Worth More Than Ten Communist Cuckoo Birds on a YouTube
I believe that Bush has helped us soar to a great economy, and that the Dems might destroy it. In fact, the only thing that can ruin my scenario of a continued rise in the market, will be President Edwards, Obama, or Clinton.Rock
(*Wikipedia is always my source unless indicated.)
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A lot of people play on the swings in the market, I was surprised when it hit 14,000 but not surprised when it fell back to 13,200. You are correct in the assessment of the economy under the stewardship of George W. Bush. Even though he gets no credit for the unbelievable growth in this country’s GNP and full employment, for which his policies are directly responsible.
ReplyDeleteWill the Dems take us back to the Carter years, Edwards would, not so sure about Clinton and Obama is an unknown, though he sounds more like Edwards than Clinton with his liberal ideas. Do not take that as an endorsement of Clinton, but I do think she realizes the benefit that her husband enjoyed because of the Market Boom in his days. For that reason I think she would not go nuts with the spending, well, maybe she would with the health care crap.
OK, back to the market, Miss Bee and I started buying stock in 1984, we have seen a lot of ups and downs, we also learned a long time ago that panic at a time like this is a sure path to failure. I had a friend that was so afraid of “the year 2000" thing that he sold everything in December of 1999, with huge capitol gains, since it all proved to be nothing, he bought back in, the market crashed and he was unable to pay his capitol gains tax, maybe there is a lesson there, not sure.
Hi there Rock,
ReplyDeleteJust thought I'd stop by and update you on the voting for bestest blog of the year. We've had over 8000 votes cast by over 100 different voters in just under a week. A contest update can be found at the new and improved brand new home of Bestest Blog!!, original details can be found here. With a week to go still, that $50 prize, title, and bragging rights is still up for grabs. Also, be sure to get in the running to be blog of the day again this year by joining the Blankest Blank Blog Directory. Thanks for reading and please stop by and leave a comment at the new Bestest Blog some time!
Hi again Rock,
ReplyDeleteJust wanted to remind you that today is the last day of voting for Bestest Blog of the Year, and there are definitely still quite a few blogs within striking distance for the fame and glory (and $50 cash prize!).
EXCLUSIVE results will be featured on my new (and improved!) blog, BestestBlog.com, 8AM EST on Tuesday morning. Voting for new "Best Blog of the Days" has already begun and the first winner (based entirely on your votes) will be picked Wednesday (and every) morning at 8AM (again at Bestest Blog). Get in the running by joining the Blankest Blank Blog Directory...over 100 have already, and we haven't even handed out any awards yet!!
We'll also be having daily results (again based on your nominations and votes) for Funniest Video, Funniest Picture, Funniest Joke, and Most Fun Game every day at 10AM, 12PM, 2PM, and 4PM respectively.
I hope you'll stop by and leave a comment some time, we've got lots of exciting stuff on the horizon!
The results are in!! Check em out and see where your blog ranks!
ReplyDeletehi rock, did you stop blogging honey? we miss you, sarge and i. let us know you are okay, ok?
ReplyDeletesmiles, bee
oh rock??? anybody home???
ReplyDeletesmiles, bee
still not blogging??? i wish i knew you were okay. i am worried about you...
ReplyDeletesmiles, bee
I really enjoy reading your blog, it always has great insight. But I am very frustrated with the media’s lack of questions to the presidential candidates about global warming.
ReplyDeleteThe Daily Green just put an article out talking about how the presidential candidates are not being asked where they stand on the issue of the climate change - this is surprising to me considering its such a MAJOR concern to people. I just saw a poll on www.EarthLab.com that says people care a lot what their next leader thinks about global warming (after you take it they show you the results). Does anyone know of another poll or other results about this subject?
If not, go to http://www.earthlab.com/life.aspx and take their poll to see which way the results go. This is a pretty legit website; they are endorsed by Al Gore and the alliance for climate protection and they have a carbon footprint calculator. No matter which political party you vote for this is an important issue for our environment, our economy and for homeland security.
Hey thanks for the great blog, I love this stuff. I don’t usually do much for Earth Day but with everyone going green these days, I thought I’d try to do my part.
ReplyDeleteI am trying to find easy, simple things I can do to help stop global warming (I don’t plan on buying a hybrid). Has anyone seen that EarthLab.com is promoting their Earth Day (month) challenge, with the goal to get 1 million people to take their carbon footprint test in April?... I took the test, it was easy and only took me about 2 minutes and I am planning on lowering my score with some of their tips.
I am looking for more easy fun stuff to do. If you know of any other sites worth my time let me know.
yes this blog is very useful
ReplyDeletekeep it on
love to see this discussion! It’s great to see you all working through the issues and also, it’s great to see recommendations for testing. In the end, it’s what your actual users do and prefer that should be your biggest driver in making these decisions.
ReplyDeleteget level