The Recent Polls and What They Suggest
P
olls and
erceptions
The '08 Presidential Election
In the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll,54% of Americans are inclined to vote for a Democrat for president in the next election; while 31% say they favor a Republican.
Still, in the most recent Quinnipiac University Poll, when the specific candidates are pitted against each other, the story changes.
Rudy Giuliani 44%, Hillary Clinton 45%
John McCain 42%, Hillary Clinton 44%
Fred Thompson 39%, Hillary Clinton 46%
A similar picture manifests with Barack Obama.
Rudy Giuliani 42%, Barack Obama 42%
John McCain 41%, Barack Obama 43%
Fred Thompson 34%, Barack Obama 46%
Presidential Approval Rating
In the most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 29% of the American people approve of the overall job President Bush is doing in office, while 66% disapprove. This is a drop of six points since April, and it represents his lowest mark ever on this question in the NBC/Journal poll.
Democratic pollster Jay Campbell, attributes this decline to Republicans. Back in April, 75 percent of Republicans approved of Bush’s job performance, compared with 21 percent who disapproved. Now, only 62 percent of Republicans approve, versus 32 percent who disapprove.
Congress
In the most recent AP-Ipsos poll,
WASHINGTON - People think the Democratic-led Congress is doing just as dreary a job as President Bush, following four months of bitter political standoffs that have seen little progress on Iraq and a host of domestic issues.
The survey found only 35 percent approve of how Congress is handling its job, down 5 percentage points in a month. That gives lawmakers the same bleak approval rating as Bush, who has been mired at about that level since last fall, including his dip to a record low for the AP-Ipsos poll of 32 percent last January.
In another measure of popular discontent, the survey found that 71 percent say the country is on the wrong track - about even with the 73 percent who said so last May, the worst level since the AP-Ipsos poll began in December 2003.
What about Nancy Pelosi? The same AP-Ispsos poll found that:
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is a more popular figure than the president and her colleagues on Capitol Hill, though she faces a gender gap in which significantly more women than men support her.
Pelosi's overall approval of 45 percent stood 10 points higher than Bush's and Congress'.
She was seen favorably by 52 percent of women, but only 39 percent of men. While whites are closely split about her, minorities approve of her job by a 15-point margin.
The War in Iraq
In the most recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, 28 % of the American people approve of the way Bush is handling the war in Iraq, while 68% disapprove.
Illegal Immigration
A new Washington Post-ABC poll and follow-up interviews found that:
click to show/hide the rest of the post
Americans remain divided and uncertain about how best to deal with the estimated 12 million people living illegally in the United States.
More than half of those surveyed said illegal immigrants hurt the country more than help it, an opinion voiced by seven in 10 Republicans and about half of Democrats.
A slim majority believe in creating a pathway to citizenship, with younger people and Democrats far more open to the idea than Republicans and those over 55.
State of the Republican Party
Since I favor Republicans at this time in history, this all represents a big mess for me. Everything seems to be going wrong for conservatives at the same time, and at warp speed and with irreversible momentum.
I know some of my readers think highly of Bush, and that 62% of Republicans still approve of the job he is doing. I am not one of these. I continue to admire his doggedness in the War in Iraq, and for the highly effective War on Terror he has waged. For these, I believe President Bush deserves our everlasting thanks.
I am also happy with him over the economy. He has kept our taxes low, and enabled an expansion to continue in the middle of a major war.
On the other hand, I continue to fault him for the politically correct way he is waging the War in Iraq, with his restrictive rules of engagement. I also don't think he has been expert in his handling of other cultures in the Middle East. Mostly, I believe, he continues to try to be a "nice guy," not realizing that what is needed is firmness and ruthlessness, much as we mustered in World War II. I am also unhappy with his amnesty plan for illegals.
Most of all, I am dissatisfied with him over his inability to lead our country to see what he sees concerning the necessity for the Iraq War, and for his vision for the Middle East. He is content to continue to "do the right things" as he perceives them, without understanding that he must also become a great communicator and salesman, despite his shortcomings in this area.
click to hide most of this post
What Lies Ahead?
If things continue as they are now, Republicans will lose some of their base. They can't afford this. It is still possible for one of the attractive Republican candidates to defeat Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, but even if this happens, Congress will slide even more left than it is now, barring a major shift.
What this means is, look out for your pocketbooks; short the stock market; be ready to join the religion of environmental extremism; expect to lose the War on Terror, for now; and forget about a peaceful Middle East.
Ideally, we'd have some candidate with a world vision that can help shape a more peaceful world. I don't see that candidate yet. Hopefully, someone will be imbued with wisdom and start thinking about the future of the world rather than the next election. I will vote for that person. My suggestion for him or her is, fine—win your primary. Then, however, get serious and start acting presidential. If you can get away with acting presidential even now, do it. Should you still win your primary, you'll have an edge on gravitas over the rest of the candidates in the final election.
Who Has the Potential to be a Great Leader?
Which candidates do have it in them to grow into this presidential persona? I believe they are Clinton, Obama, McCain, Giuliani, and Thompson. Clinton and Obama, of course, have the biggest challenge with this—as they are true liberals, and the world does not need liberal solutions at this time. Yet, Clinton could do it, if she allows herself to grow. Obama could do it if he listens to his innate intelligence, ignoring his poll numbers to an extent.
What about Romney? I doubt he'd have the flexibility to see the world as it really is, but I may be wrong. We'll see. He is, after all, a presidential candidate who would present a pretty face to the world, backed by a high level of intelligence and communication skills.
There, the gauntlet is laid. Who will pick it up?
Rock
(*Wikipedia is always my source unless indicated.)
Click here to get a button link to this blog:
Join me in the war on error, in the fight for truth, justice, and the American way! Support this site!
Subscribe to my feed
Join or Surf Rock's Political Blog Ring. Both Liberals and Conservatives are Welcome.
Technorati Tags for this post: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney, Republican, Democrat, Democratic, Polls, 2008 Election, Conservative, Liberal
Regular Technorati Tags for this blog: politics, political, politically incorrect, no spin, conservative, Republican, right wing, liberal, Democrat, left wing, leftist, democracy, election, peace, war, George W. Bush, editorial, opinion, news, current affairs, media, television, television, Hollywood, books, culture, society, religion, God, fundamentalism, Christian, Catholic, Muslim, Jew, Israel, Palestine, blog, truth
i still say it is clinton all the way, unless she implodes, and they i still think they will vote for her. it scares the literal crap out of me rock. it really does. i try to be light and funny, but this is serious business. i will cast my one vote. i will do my best. i don't think it will be nearly enough...
ReplyDeletesmiles, bee
Oooh! The Sarge is gonna get you for badmouthing his boy- and actually suggesting Hillary might make a good leader! Just kidding Sarge! I think you're on the money this time around. It's a political crapshoot which is what makes this SO interesting. So many issues to deal with, and more severe issues than in times past. Whoever takes office next will surely have their work cut out for them!
ReplyDeleteEmpress Bee, notwithstanding my generosity to Hillary in this post, I essentially do agree with you. I think that I see the distinct possibility of her being elected, and am looking for a silver lining to it. Since I do believe in the capacity of great challenges to bring out the best (or worst) in people, I think it is possible that she could rise to the occasion. However, you're right. The odds are that her presidency would be a disaster.
ReplyDeleteRock
paz, you're right. I so much like Sarge that I cringe at the thought of crossing his world view. Still, I continue to feel that Bush could pull this thing (his presidency) out of the fire if he would believe in his own greatness. I think he believes in the greatness of his ideas, and that he trusts in God; but he also needs to believe in his own greatness. He needs to reach higher, and become a great communicator. He's proven that he is capable of this; but he needs to do it on a regular basis. This requires a greater self-confidence, and a communicating of a vision.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, he will never rise to greatness, in my mind, on certain issues--like immigration, and like a ruthless prosecution of war.
Rock
Well I came here and breezed over this post yesterday, after falling into cardiac arrest my pacemaker kicked in and i struggled to my feet and wondered if my friend Mr Rock wrote the post, no, he has an evil twin, that must be the answer........ more to follow, I will show your evil twin that he has no clue.........
ReplyDeleteSarge, you're right, even I cringe when I read what I wrote. Still, I'm trying to pray that God will infuse some hopeless people with a change of heart. Kind of like Nixon going to China, and Johnson promoting Civil Rights.
ReplyDeleteStill, when I see what is going on in Congress this very day, with Congress at war with American prosperity--and the stock market showing it, I realize that Democrats are Democrats, and my post may have been wishful thinking. I don't understand how the American people can be favoring this bunch.
As far as Bush goes,though, I'm afraid we disagree now about him. I admire him for persevering in the face of criticism. I just don't agree with the way he has waged the war, nor with his immigration policies. Plus, I do feel he has it in him to be a great communicator, but I don't think he believes it.
Thanks anyway, Sarge. Let me have it.
Rock
My answer is way too involved, stop by my place to see the response
ReplyDeleteruh ro rock, you did it now! ha ha
ReplyDeletehillary (gag)...
smiles, bee
Empress Bee, I don't mean to be wishy-washy, but you and Sarge are probably right on this one. I'm letting too much of my New Age optimism creep in on my judgments of hardcore evil. Hillary is Hillary. Democrats are Democrats. Now, I wish that Republicans would become Republicans again.
ReplyDeleteRock
Thank you Mr Rock for the Material to make one of my better posts.
ReplyDeleteYou're welcome, Sarge.
ReplyDeleteRock